You're still a clown at estimation....

... But it's not necessarily your fault. The main reason is surely that you work in an environment or a culture where expectations are that you are presenting low costs and potentially high income (or savings or whatever benefits might be). If (and I mean really if ..) you presented the truth, people would look at you like you were crazy and the proposed project would be immediately binned - or given to "a rmore easonable person".

That's the truth in the construction industry according to Prof. Bent Flybjerg that you can hear talk about the subject here on a visit to Harvard.

But you do not have to go to construction in order to find this pattern of deliberately manipulating the figures. It is found in all industries and also in yours and in your workplace. You will find managers who dare not show the director the real costs. Sales persons who will have orders for almost any price. HR people who dream wishful thinking on employees' potentials. Economy People who believe that SAP can save a decaying business etc.

They are all around you and you are never in doubt about the "right figures".

We should have a Whistleblower mailbox where we could drop our sincere estimates.