You're still a clown at estimation....

... But it's not necessarily your fault. The main reason is surely that you work in an environment or a culture where expectations are that you are presenting low costs and potentially high income (or savings or whatever benefits might be). If (and I mean really if ..) you presented the truth, people would look at you like you were crazy and the proposed project would be immediately binned - or given to "a rmore easonable person".

That's the truth in the construction industry according to Prof. Bent Flybjerg that you can hear talk about the subject here on a visit to Harvard.

But you do not have to go to construction in order to find this pattern of deliberately manipulating the figures. It is found in all industries and also in yours and in your workplace. You will find managers who dare not show the director the real costs. Sales persons who will have orders for almost any price. HR people who dream wishful thinking on employees' potentials. Economy People who believe that SAP can save a decaying business etc.

They are all around you and you are never in doubt about the "right figures".

We should have a Whistleblower mailbox where we could drop our sincere estimates.

Benefits are good but Commitments on is better

It is relatively affordable to prepare a business case. It takes longer for it to be of good quality (read: reliable) and a little less time if the quality can be poor (read: too optimistic).

Anyway Business Cases are rarely in play for very long. In many places they are forgotten after the project is approved. Fewer places review it at every gate in the project model. Even fewer sites are updated on an ongoing basis as all get wiser. Finally the very few places make a review long after project completion to follow up on the promised effects.

Anyway it's all not of much use if the benefit's or effects are seen as something only the project must produce - something the project should Push forward. The reality shows that without someone to demand Benefits or effects, there is rarely much chances of success - some must Pull too.

Anyway it does not help that much if those who must demand are not committed.

Therefore, a good business case should have more signatures: 1) the signature of the costs and resources may be used for the agreed deliverables 2) signatures that somebody has put their head on the block that if they get the deliverables they are accountable for the benefit's.

There is money in good project management!

From the news media we are tempted to believe that good project is just about avoiding disasters but the real gains are below the journalists' radar and happens in everyday life and not in the culmination - or as the Olympic gold medalist in rowing Niels Laulund says: "The gold is won in everyday life ". Few companies and managers understand the value of project management. They always talk about to avoid something unpleasant, but rarely to achieve something good about project management. Here we have probably been too bad to sell ourselves, and perhaps that is why we have such a hard time getting managements to invest in the creation of good project management cultures around?

But there is plenty of money in good project - here are just a few sources:

Should we punish Project Managers with fines and imprisonment?

.. to get more quality into the estimates that underlie the business cases that we repeatedly see are not reliable in real life!

The idea pops up when you read Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg article here about all the scandals in public (and probably in total secrecy also business-) capital expenditures. Advisers who calculate business Cases with too low costs and excessive benefits (eg. Number of cars on the Great Belt Bridge, etc.) should not escape as easily as just being fired believes Flyvbjerg. When society in this way is misled we should perhaps punish advisers more harsh considers Flyvbjerg.

Now try this quick thought experiment:

If you now have to pay a fine of 3 times your monthly salary if the estimates on your project are not met, what would you do differently? - And now the killer question: why do you not do it allready today?

Pick two!!

All bosses are dreaming of this project triangle all night.

It is important that we constantly repeats the rule: PICK TWO!!

1.If it has to be Good and Cheap it will not be Fast!
2.If it has to be Good and Fast it will not be Cheap!
3.If it has to be Fast and Cheap it will propably not be good!

Yes, it seems logical, but be careful out in real life ....

What do you think you are?

To get the project completed and accepted on time and budget does not make us good project managers in everyone's eyes - at least not necessarily in customers.

It's a bit like a supplier - what do you want: 1) what you requested? or 2) what you need? The last right?

Suppliers deliver what you order. Business Partners deliver what you need - or making an effort to do so.

The supplier you can rely on the quality, time and cost. Partners are in sincerity, empathy, focus on your business, etc.

Suppliers can be obtained anywhere. Partners are more rare.

Supplier role is easy. Role is difficult because you often must make unpleasant and provocative questions. You have to ask again and again - even when the customer has had enough - "just to be sure ....".

Want to be a good project manager in customers' eyes, you have to cover the whole playing field:

Map or landscape?

Have you ever thought about why we say: "we are behind schedule" or "we are not at the plan"?

The reality may no longer be as we planned it, but it's not reality that does not fit into the plans. It's always plans that do not fit with reality. We do not change the landscape to fit the map - it's the other way around. Therefore, we should get used to saying something like "schedule is ahead of reality" or "the paln is not where we are"!

How strange it may sound, it makes us all more humbled to reality. We have to respect that reality does not change just because we make plans. Henry Mintzberg has said it very well: "Reality has a tendency to constantly get in the way of the plan!"

 
Have a nice weekend

The culprit is found!

I think I have finally found the cause of all our problems in projects! Hold on! This is gonna be big! The reason is where nobody has looked. Right at the feet of you. The reason is simply the word Project! That's it!

When I say project - ziiiip zaaaaap, then you have immediately a picture of a project in your brains, but do we have the same? and is in fact one the right image or a real definition?

There are lots of definitions - some are even standards (eg. Here at PMI), but common to them all is that they all come from or fit a certain age - the so-called Modern Social Period - the period governed by reason and knowledge.
I think many today feel that reason and knowledge is no longer the most important thing in projects now a day. We are in the Postmodern Social Period - the period ruled by discourse and rhetoric. An appropriate definition of project nowadays might be:

A discourse of legitimation and an arena for social games and power tests. The project is an instrument of powerful stakeholders.
Yes, it was a little fluffy. Back on earth one could just have fun with defining success in projects? is it:
• process terms: managed within time, quality and resources?
• product-wise: it can be used and they are happy about it?
• business: was it worth it?

- We are allready three completely different views of projects. So do not come here and say that the word project makes sense!

So what I'm trying to say is that the word project is a too poor word - and therefore it is dangerous - and therefore we must find another or a different way of talking about 'projects' further on.

There are great prizes for the winner!

Poor Business Cases

The good thing is that most now have a BC and can spell Cost / Benefit, etc. The bad thing is that these analyzes are often created as a 'fill in the blanks "where the numbers just inserted witout any brain activity. So we get nice and positive analysis and we get ok on our projects.
Now it's just that it's hard to be pessimistic about the costs and it's hard not to be optimistic on sales / revenues. Therefore, these curves always like this:

- And therefore all Business Cases look too good. Remember that it is the one who creates the curves, which is responsible - it's not the decision maker. The decision-maker is however liable to fire you because of insanity!